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DTN Midday Grain Comments     11/20 11:38

   Corn Mixed; Soybeans, Wheat Lower at Midday

   Corn is near unchanged, while soybeans and wheat are lower at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market is higher at midday with the Dow up 85 points. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 25 points higher. 
Energies are lower with crude 0.70 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. 
Precious metals are lower with gold down $11.90.


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade trying to establish 
support after the upside recovery on Friday. Ethanol margins are stable to 
softer with energies weaker to start the week, with demand likely to bump up 
this week for Thanksgiving travel. Basis and carry have shown further 
improvement with carry trading at 11 1/2 cents this morning. Remaining harvest 
is struggling with poor drying conditions this week, but we are near the end 
overall with the weekly report expected to be past 90%. The weekly export 
inspections remain soft, at 632,793 metric tons. On the December chart, support 
is at the new low at $3.36 1/2. Resistance is at the $3.48 3/4 50-day moving, 
then the $3.58 six-week high. 


   Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade trying to 
consolidate the gains from Friday. Meal is flat to $1 lower, and oil is 45 to 
55 points lower. South American weather looks to add some rain in Argentina in 
the dry areas near term, with overall issues remaining limited. Export business 
has been quiet for the bulk of November on the daily wire, which has raised 
some concern. The weekly report should show harvest effectively complete. The 
weekly export inspections remained solid at 2.131 million metric tons. India 
increased palm oil duties, which are weighing on world veg oil prices. On the 
January chart, prices got back above all the major moving averages, with the 
20-day at $9.86, the first level of support, which we are just above at midday, 
and the recent high at $10.08, the next level of resistance.


   Wheat trade is 1 to 8 cents lower at midday with choppy trade continuing 
near the lower end of the range. Dryness is a concern that is limiting downside 
on the winter wheat contracts, but that has not translated into more aggressive 
short-covering. If the row crops can put together some momentum, it should 
start to increase short-covering in wheat, but that has faltered so far. The 
weekly crop conditions are expected to be steady to lower with planting pretty 
well wrapped up. Export inspections were soft at 259,264 metric tons. The 
Russian ruble weakness recently helped Russian competitiveness on the world 
market, with business to the Middle East marked by continued steady cash trade. 
Basis has firmed a bit on the Plains in recent days but, overall, remains wide. 
On the December KC, support is the $4.13 1/2 low, with the 10-day and 20-day at 
$4.25, as resistance. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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